Buying a home is not just one of the most exciting milestones in your life; it’s also one of the most significant investments you'll ever make. With so many steps involved in the process, it can feel overwhelming. However, having a clear understanding of the sequence of events can make this journey much smoother. Here’s a detailed overview of what to expect, along with insights on how we can assist you every step of the way.

Step 1: Getting Pre-Approved

Why Pre-Approval Is Important

The initial step in your home-buying journey is to secure a mortgage pre-approval. This process involves a lender evaluating your financial history and current financial situation to determine how much they are willing to lend you. Pre-approval not only clarifies your budget but also signals to sellers that you are a serious buyer.

How We Can Help:

Access to Lender Network: We can connect you with reputable lenders who can provide tailored options based on your unique financial situation.
Credit Evaluation: We’ll guide you on how to improve your credit score if needed, increasing your chances of getting better loan terms.

Step 2: Finding Your Dream Home

Research and Preferences

Once you’ve determined your budget, it’s time to start searching for your dream home. This involves understanding your needs and preferences. Are you looking for a cozy condo, a family-friendly house, or a spacious estate?

How We Can Help:

Personalized Consultation: We will meet with you to discuss your wish list—considering factors like location, size, amenities, and lifestyle.
Market Insight: With our expertise in the local market, we’ll provide you with valuable insights about various neighborhoods, schools, and amenities to help you make informed decisions.

Step 3: Making an Offer

Crafting a Competitive Offer

When you find a home that feels like "the one," it’s time to make an offer. This is where strategy comes into play; you want to make sure your offer stands out.

How We Can Help:

Market Analysis: We’ll conduct a comparative market analysis to ensure your offer reflects current market conditions.
Negotiation Skills: Our experienced team will negotiate on your behalf, considering factors like seller motivation and market competition to secure the best terms.

Step 4: Home Inspection and Due Diligence

The Importance of Inspections

Once your offer is accepted, conducting a home inspection is crucial. An inspection reveals the property's condition and identifies any potential issues.

How We Can Help:

Recommendations: We can recommend trusted home inspectors who will thoroughly evaluate the property.
Addressing Concerns: If any significant issues arise from the inspection, we’ll help you decide whether to renegotiate or move forward with the purchase.

Step 5: Securing Financing

Finalizing Your Mortgage

After passing the inspection, it’s time to finalize your mortgage. This process involves submitting final paperwork and securing your loan, so it's essential to keep communication open with your lender.

How We Can Help:

Keeping You Informed: We’ll ensure you understand all the necessary documentation required for final approval.
Problem Solving: If any challenges arise during this stage, we’ll be there to assist you in resolving them promptly.

Step 6: Closing the Deal

What to Expect on Closing Day

Closing is the final step in the home-buying process, where you'll sign all necessary documents and take full ownership of your new home.

How We Can Help:

Guidance on Paperwork: We’ll walk you through each document, explaining important terms and conditions.
Ensuring Smooth Transactions: Our team will coordinate with all involved parties, including lenders, title companies, and inspectors, to ensure that everything goes off without a hitch.

Step 7: Moving In and Beyond

Settling into Your New Home

Once the closing is complete and you have the keys in hand, it's time to move in! But the journey doesn’t stop there.

How We Can Help:

Post-Move Support: We offer resources for moving services, home improvement contractors, and local services to help you settle in.
Ongoing Relationship: We believe in building long-term relationships with our clients, offering continued support and resources for future home needs.

Start Your Journey with Us

Buying a home is not just a transaction; it's a journey that requires careful planning and expert guidance. Our dedicated team is here to provide the support you need throughout the entire process. With our extensive knowledge of the market and access to a network of trusted lenders, we can help you navigate each step, ensuring you find the perfect home at the best possible terms.

Ready to start your home-buying journey? Contact us today to schedule a consultation and learn how we can assist!

After a rollercoaster ride of rising interest rates, homebuyers are finally catching a break. Mortgage rates, which peaked at nearly 7.8% in late 2023, have moderated to around 6.2% as of fall 2025¹². While still higher than the historic lows of 2021, this shift is making a noticeable difference in monthly payments—especially for buyers shopping in the average price range.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

Let’s break it down. A $400,000 mortgage at 7.79% would have cost buyers roughly $2,877/month in principal and interest. At today’s moderated rate of 6.2%, that same loan now costs about $2,450/month—a savings of over $400 monthly¹. For homes priced closer to the median in our region (around $300,000–$350,000), the savings are still substantial, often trimming $300–$350 off monthly payments compared to last year’s peak.

This moderation is especially meaningful for first-time buyers, empty nesters, and relocators who were previously priced out of the market. With slightly lower rates and more predictable monthly costs, the window to buy is opening wider.

Why Morganton, Hickory, and Newton/Conover Are Worth a Look

Beyond the numbers, western North Carolina is buzzing with new energy. The Morganton–Hickory–Newton/Conover corridor is seeing a wave of new businesses and infrastructure that’s turning heads—and drawing relocators.

Here’s what’s brewing:

The Honey Hog Restaurant is under construction in Morganton, promising a vibrant new dining experience on Carbon City Road. With steel framing underway, it’s expected to open in a brand-new facility by year’s end³.
WeCare Pharmacy, a full-service compounding and specialty pharmacy, is opening in Morganton’s former Smoothie King building. It’s designed to serve patients with chronic and rare conditions, adding a layer of healthcare sophistication to the area³.
Village Inn Pizza Parlor is expanding with a new location on Bush Drive, bringing a beloved regional favorite to more families³.
Hickory’s economic development continues to shine. Recognized as one of the fastest-growing economies in the U.S., the city is actively attracting new businesses and fostering a culture of craftsmanship and innovation⁴.
Catawba County’s Future Summit recently brought together over 360 leaders to chart bold visions for growth, signaling strong regional momentum and investment⁵.

A Lifestyle Worth Relocating For

Nestled between Charlotte and Asheville, this region offers a rare blend of affordability, natural beauty, and economic opportunity. Whether you're a remote worker seeking a scenic backdrop, a retiree looking for community, or a family craving space and value, Morganton, Hickory, and Newton/Conover deliver.

With interest rates easing and new businesses planting roots, now is a strategic time to explore relocation. The mortgage math is improving, and the lifestyle perks are multiplying.

?? Thinking about making a move? Let’s connect. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring, I’m here to help you navigate the market with clarity and confidence.

Sources:

References (5)

1Data Spotlight: The Impact of Changing Mortgage Interest Rates. https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/research-reports/data-spotlight-the-impact-of-changing-mortgage-interest-rates/

2How Federal Reserve Rate Decisions Impact Mortgage Rates in 2025 .... https://www.kiplinger.com/real-estate/mortgages/how-the-federal-reserve-affects-mortgage-rates

3Here's the latest on businesses coming to Morganton | Business | The Paper. https://www.thepaper.media/business/from-farewells-to-new-construction-here-are-the-latest-morganton-business-updates/article_5601c03b-8349-40a3-a5aa-b72c013c296f.html

4Breaking Ground | City of Hickory. https://www.hickorync.gov/breaking-ground

5Home - The Chamber of Catawba County. https://catawbachamber.org/

A look at homes that didn't sell and how they're bouncing back...

In the past 60 days, over 40 homes in Catawba Valley were relisted after failing to sell. The common thread could have been poor marketing, unclear pricing or missed emotional connection for buyers. Sellers who re-entered the market with fresh visuals and strategic storytelling saw renewed interest. If you've tried to sell before, let's explore what could work better this time.

Sheree

Below are 10 practical, deeper-scope actions homeowners can take to remain safe, independent, and comfortable at home as they age. Each item includes immediate steps, mid-term upgrades, and notes on who or where to get help.

1) Reduce fall risks throughout the home
- Immediate: Remove loose rugs, secure electrical cords, declutter walking paths, keep frequently used items within easy reach.
- Mid-term: Install slip-resistant flooring or add non-slip treatments, improve thresholds to eliminate trip edges, replace round throw rugs with low-profile rugs secured with rug tape.
- Professional help: Occupational therapist (OT) home safety assessment, general contractor for permanent flooring fixes.

2) Improve lighting and visibility
- Immediate: Replace dim bulbs with bright, warm LED bulbs (aim for 600–1,100 lumens in living areas), add night-lights in bedrooms, bathrooms, and hallways.
- Mid-term: Add motion-activated lights, under-cabinet kitchen lighting, and switch to rocker or smart switches for easier operation.
- Why it matters: Good lighting reduces falls and helps with reading medications and labels.

3) Make bathrooms safe and accessible
- Immediate: Put non-slip mats in tubs and on shower floors; install a sturdy shower chair and handheld showerhead.
- Mid-term: Install grab bars near the toilet and in shower/tub (professionally anchored), consider a walk-in shower or tub replacement.
- Considerations: A raised toilet seat or comfort-height toilet can reduce strain and fall risk.

4) Evaluate and modify entryways and stairs
- Immediate: Ensure outdoor steps, walkways, and handrails are sound; add exterior lighting and remove tripping hazards.
- Mid-term: Install continuous, well-anchored handrails on both sides of stairways; add anti-slip nosing to stairs.
- Longer-term options: Stairlift or residential elevator if stairs become a major barrier.

5) Reconfigure the kitchen for safer daily use
- Immediate: Store daily items at waist level to avoid reaching/bending; use lightweight cookware and jar openers.
- Mid-term: Lower or adjust cabinets, add pull-out shelves, consider side-by-side or drawer-style appliances for easier access.
- Safety: Install an automatic shutoff for stove if available, and use easy-to-read appliance controls.

6) Manage health, medications, and monitoring
- Immediate: Create an up-to-date medication list; use weekly pill organizers or pre-filled blister packs from pharmacy.
- Mid-term: Consider an automated med dispenser or smartphone reminders; enroll in telehealth for routine check-ins.
- Monitoring: Personal emergency response systems (PERS) or fall-detecting wearables, and remote monitoring for caregivers if consented to.

7) Legal, financial, and care-planning documents
- Immediate: Prepare or update a durable power of attorney for finances and health care, advance directive (living will), and a list of accounts/passwords.
- Mid-term: Meet an elder-care attorney or financial planner experienced in retirement/Medicare/Long-Term Care planning.
- Financial tools: Explore benefits (Medicare, Medicaid, VA, Area Agency on Aging programs), and evaluate long-term care insurance or safe reverse-mortgage counseling if needed.

8) Build a support network and services plan
- Immediate: Create an emergency contact list with neighbors, family, primary care physician, and local emergency services. Register with local wellness checks if available.
- Mid-term: Identify trusted in-home care agencies, meal delivery (Meals on Wheels), transportation options, and respite care for caregivers.
- Social needs: Maintain social engagement (senior center programs, volunteer work, clubs) to reduce isolation and support mental health.

9) Maintain home systems and prepare for emergencies
- Immediate: Test smoke/CO detectors and replace batteries; check fire extinguisher; service heating/cooling systems.
- Mid-term: Create a disaster/emergency plan (evacuation routes, emergency kit, plan for power outages), install a whole-house generator if medically necessary.
- Maintenance: Keep walkways, gutters, roof, plumbing, and electrical systems up to date to prevent sudden hazards.

10) Support mobility, strength, and preventive health
- Immediate: Start balance/strength exercises (daily 20–30 minutes); schedule a primary care check for vision, hearing, foot health, and medication review.
- Mid-term: Enroll in community exercise programs (tai chi, PT-led balance classes) and get a mobility evaluation (canes, walkers, wheelchairs fitted by a PT/rehab supplier).
- Preventive: Ongoing vision/hearing correction and dental care reduce falls and improve quality of life.

When to consider relocation or downsizing
Signs it may be time to relocate or downsize:
- Safety is regularly compromised despite modifications (recurrent falls, difficulty with stairs, inability to use bathroom safely).
- You need help with two or more Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) such as bathing, dressing, toileting, transferring, or eating on a regular basis.
- Frequent hospitalizations or complex medical needs that require 24/7 monitoring or skilled nursing care.
- Cognitive decline or dementia causes unsafe behaviors (wandering, inability to follow medication/meal plans) and caregiver burden is high.
- Home modification costs approach or exceed the value of the home, or structural limits make accessibility impractical.
- Social isolation or lack of nearby family/caregivers that threatens health or well-being.

Options and considerations when thinking about moving:
- Downsizing to a single-level home reduces stair risks and maintenance burden.
- Moving to a walkable neighborhood near services, medical care, and public transportation improves independence.
- Senior housing with supportive services (continuing care retirement communities, assisted living, or memory care) for graduated needs.
- Aging-in-community options: co-housing, multigenerational living, or staying near family with formal caregiver support.

Decision tips:
- Get a professional home safety assessment and a geriatric care manager or social worker opinion to evaluate options.
- Compare costs: ongoing in-home care + major renovations vs. monthly fees and services in supportive housing.
- Trial runs: try short-term respite or adult day programs to see how reduced independence might feel and how well external supports meet needs.

Sheree Byrd, Realtor (R)
Faith Parker Properties
License #358064
828-391-9535
info@shereebyrdrealtor.com
www.shereebyrdrealtor.com

Had the pleasure of meeting one of the most forward-thinking and successful real estate agents of the modern time, Ryan Serhant, this week at a next-level training with his team.

I believe home is the foundation of life. It’s where you recharge, where family gathers, where memories are built.

For a retiree, “home” might mean a smaller place with less upkeep and more freedom to travel. For a relocating family, “home” means a safe community with good schools. For someone selling an estate, “home” represents years of love and history.

That’s why buying or selling is such an emotional journey. And that’s why I treat every client’s move with care. Because it’s never just a house—it’s home.

?? CTA: What does “home” mean to you? Share your thoughts with me—and if you’re ready to find your next one in Catawba Valley, let’s talk.

People often ask: “So what do Realtors really do all day?”

Here’s the truth—it’s not just showing pretty houses. A typical day for me includes:

Morning coffee while reviewing market updates ?
Coordinating showings for buyers ??
Helping sellers prepare for open houses ??
Attending inspections and closings ??
Lots and lots of phone calls to keep clients informed ??

It’s a balancing act of details, deadlines, and emotions. But at the heart of it, it’s about helping people make one of the biggest decisions of their lives.

In Hickory, NC, that often means working with retirees downsizing, families relocating to the area, or locals looking for a change. Every story is different, and that’s what keeps this work rewarding.

?? CTA: If you’re looking for a Realtor® who will sweat the details so you can focus on your next chapter, let’s connect.

Sheree Byrd, Realtor®, Faith Parker Properties

info@shereebyrdrealtor.com

One of the biggest myths I hear from buyers in Hickory is: “I can’t buy a house until I have 20% down.”

Here’s the truth:

FHA loans may require as little as 3.5% down.
VA loans (for veterans) can require 0% down.
USDA loans (available in parts of Catawba County) also allow 0% down.
North Carolina programs offer down payment assistance for first-time buyers.

Waiting to save up 20% can keep you out of the market unnecessarily. With interest rates and housing prices moving, getting in sooner could save you money long-term.

?? CTA: Wondering what programs you qualify for? Let’s schedule a call and explore your options.

Sheree Byrd, Realtor®

After years of suppressed supply, U.S. housing inventory is seeing a significant boost. As of July 2025, active home listings rose nearly 25% year-over-year—the 21st straight month of growth—bringing national inventory above 1 million for the third month in a row. States like Nevada (+52.9%), Maryland (+48.2%), and North Carolina are leading the surge New York Post.

Yet, despite more choices, affordability remains the market’s most pressing challenge. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, 25% of buyers cite housing affordability as their top concern, followed by hopes for lower mortgage rates (19%) and lingering inventory shortages (17%) National Association of REALTORS®. Mortgage rates for 15-year loans could dip to around 5.5% in late 2025—but prices are still climbing, making timing decisions tricky Ramsey Solutions+1.

2. A Market Tilt Toward Moderate Regional Growth

National home values are inching upward—home prices have seen modest gains of around 2–3% year-over-year HouseCanaryHAR.com. Still, growth isn’t evenly distributed. Smaller and more affordable markets—like Brunswick, GA (up 7.1%), Grand Island, NE (6.3%), and Glens Falls, NY (5.9%)—are outperforming many larger urban areas HouseCanary. At the same time, once-booming markets in Florida are cooling sharply, placing among the coldest in 2025, as rising property taxes and insurance costs dampen buyer enthusiasm Business Insider. Homes are also spending more time on the market in cities like Nashville, Orlando, Miami, and Tucson New York Post.

3. A Window of Opportunity on the Horizon

Experts now see the U.S. housing market in a “post-rate-cut opportunity” phase. A combination of easing mortgage rates, shifting investor behavior—including renewed bets from the likes of Warren Buffett—and adjustments in macroeconomic policy are creating potential openings for strategic investors AInvest. Meanwhile, projections for the market remain steady; analysts foresee house prices possibly growing but at a slower rate than before Norada Real EstateAInvest.

4. Premiums Persist in Top School Districts

While broader trends show moderation, homes in high-rated school districts continue to command hefty premiums—on average $1.21 million, or 135% above regional medians. Areas like Texas’s Carroll Independent School District ($2.16M, +391%), Laguna Beach Unified in California (~~$5M, +322%), and Reed Union near San Francisco (~~$4M) exemplify this trend New York Post. For families chasing education access, these markets remain fiercely competitive.

What It Means for Buyers, Sellers & Investors

Buyer’s Brief:

Where to look? Smaller cities and mid-size markets may offer more growth potential and affordability.
Choose your moment: More inventory and softening competition are giving buyers leverage—especially in previously overheated markets.
Mind the premiums: Top school zones still come with deep price tags. If school proximity isn’t a must, consider exploring nearby alternatives.

Seller’s Snapshot:

Set smart expectations: Slower sales and price adjustments are becoming more common, especially in South and West metros.
Highlight what matters: If your home boasts access to great schools, good mortgage terms, or energy-efficient upgrades, promoting those features can help differentiate.

Investor’s Insight:

Watch for the rate shift: If the Fed lowers rates in Q3, refinancing and acquisition opportunities may open up.
Eye growing markets: Investors looking for yield or growth may find better value in emerging markets outside coastal centers.

Final Thoughts

2025 is shaping up to be a nuanced housing year. The market is easing—but not crashing—thanks to rising inventory, persistent affordability strains, and shifting demand toward more affordable, often overlooked regions. Meanwhile, pockets of resilience like top school districts and rate-sensitive zones still command attention. Layer in the potential boost from expected mortgage rate cuts, and you’ve got a market that’s moving away from pandemic extremes toward a more considered and strategic landscape.

Let me know if you'd like a deeper dive into any of these trends—whether it’s regional snapshots, financing forecasts, or how proptech and AI are reshaping real estate dynamics.

Sheree Byrd, Realtor®

Hickory Housing Market Snapshot — Mid-2025

Median sale price: $347,000, down 1.4% year-over-year. Redfin
Homes sold: Up 41.8%, with 78 sold in June. Redfin
Days on market: Averaging 60 days, up from 51 last year. Redfin
Rocket report: Median sold price of $304,250 in July, marking 3.4% growth over the past year. Rocket

These stats show a market that’s active but cooling: more transactions happening, but buyers taking their time, and pricing remaining under pressure.

What This Means for You as a Seller

Market Factor	Opportunity for Sellers
Slight price dip (-1.4%)	Pricing smartly (e.g., 1–2% below comps) can spark interest and lead to quicker offers.
More homes are selling (+41.8%)	The demand is still real—well-presented homes are likely to stand out.
Longer selling time (60 days)	Patience helps, but proactive tactics (such as staging, virtual tours, and flexible terms) can make a difference.
Mixed signals—some growth, some cool-down	Timing and accurate expectations are key. Sellers need a knowledgeable local guide now more than ever.

Engage Thoughtfully: We Want Your Perspective!

Question for readers:
— What concerns are you most facing as a seller in Hickory right now? Is it pricing, preparing your home, or understanding market timing?
— If your listing sold faster than average—or took much longer—what worked (or didn't)?

Tell us in the comments! Your experiences help your neighbors, enrich our insights, and build a stronger local seller community.

Understanding the 2025 Fed Rate-Cut Outlook: What It Means for Real Estate

1. What’s Happening with Fed Rates?

As of mid-2025, the Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% for five consecutive meetings. ReutersWikipedia
However, growing economic softness—especially in the labor market—has prompted several Fed officials to lean toward easing policy soon. ReutersAP NewsInvestopedia

2. How Many Rate Cuts Are Likely—and When?

Goldman Sachs projects three 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October, and December. Reuters

J.P. Morgan has accelerated its outlook, expecting four cuts starting in September—and possibly extending into early 2026. MarketWatchReuters
Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three cuts this year, driven by weakening labor data and inflation trends. ReutersAP News

3. What Markets Are Saying

Market viewers are assigning a high probability (around 89–93%) to the first rate cut happening at the Fed’s September 2025 meeting.Reuters+1Fox Business
Investors anticipate multiple cuts over the remainder of the year, with some even forecasting early 2026 cuts.MarketWatchReuters+1

4. What This Means for Real Estate

Refinancing Opportunities – Lower interest rates could allow homeowners to refinance at better terms, boosting monthly savings.
Affordability Gains – Future buyers might qualify for larger loans as interest rates dip, potentially increasing demand.
Market Momentum – Historically, when rate cuts are proactive (rather than reactive to recessions), housing markets often experience favorable momentum. Fidelity Investments Investopedia
Cautious Optimism for Buyers and Sellers – While early cuts can stimulate housing, consumers should still watch for inflation and labor market developments that influence borrowing costs.

Bottom Line

The outlook for 2025 features a growing consensus: the Fed is poised to begin cutting rates as early as September, potentially delivering three to four cuts by year-end and beyond. These movements could significantly impact mortgage rates and real estate buying power.

Ever heard the word “contingency” and wondered what it really means? ?? It’s just a fancy way of saying “this deal depends on X, Y, or Z happening first.” Whether it’s financing, inspections, or another key detail, contingencies are there to protect you. I’ll walk you through every step so nothing catches you by surprise! Ready to get started?

#thehelpfulagent #home #houseexpert #house #listreports #househunting #a072125 #realestate #realestateagent #realtor #investment #happyhomeowners #dreamhome

Read the full article to stay in the know #article #news #notablearticle #listreports #realestate

Scott Bradley Brixen

June 12, 2025

The May BLS job report looked strong on the surface, but large (and consistent) downward revisions to prior months suggest that the labor market is loosening up more than the Fed lets on. Also, the May CPI report turned out much better (that is, lower) than feared.

A recap of May “jobs week”
ADP: Almost no job growth in May. ADP reported that private employers added just 37,000 jobs in May — far below Wall Street expectations of around 120,000. Small companies (<50 employees) actually lost a net 13,000 jobs, and half of the industry categories tracked by ADP saw net job declines. [ADP]

BLS: Strong on the surface. In direct contrast to ADP’s data, the BLS jobs report showed that the US added a solid 139,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. But wait…the prior two months’ numbers were revised down by 95,000 jobs! And the birth/death model — which is supposed to capture small business start-ups and failures — added nearly 200,000 jobs on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. [BLS]

TP: Real (ADP) vs. imputed (BLS). It’s getting to be a bit ridiculous. The birth-death model is adding imaginary jobs every month, and the initial BLS jobs numbers are typically revised down — twice!

Home inventory levels continue to rise. The May update of Realtor.com’s Residential Listing Database showed that active inventory (which excludes homes already under contract) had risen 31.5% YoY to 1,036,101 units. The last time we had over 1 million homes for sale was December 2019 — just before the pandemic spurred a massive inventory drawdown. [Realtor.com]

TP: Back in December 2019, we had 1 million active listings and homes were selling at a 5.0–5.5 million unit annual pace. Today we’re back above 1 million active listings, but we’re selling homes at a 4.0 million unit annual pace.

Median listing prices trending lower. Let’s start with this: median listing prices aren’t the best way to look at home price appreciation. That’s because they can be skewed significantly by the changing mix of properties for sale. That said, it’s worth noting that in 60% of the Top 100 metros, median listing prices are down year-over-year. In most cities, however, these declines are modest (1–3%), especially when compared to the gains over the past 5 years. [Realtor.com]

May CPI was better (lower) than expected. Both the “headline” and “core” CPI (Consumer Price Index = inflation for you and me) rose by just 0.1% month-over-month, which meant that annual “core” inflation remained at +2.8% YoY. Wall Street expectations were for “headline” CPI to rise by 0.2% MoM and for “core” CPI to climb 0.3% MoM. Phew! [BLS]

TP: This was a surprisingly tame inflation report. Many of the larger categories (energy, new & used car prices) saw prices FALL month-over-month. If not for the 0.3% MoM (+3.9% YoY) increase in Shelter costs (which have an incredible 44% weighting in “core” CPI), the index could have gone backwards. And if you annualize the last 3 months of “core” CPI increases, you get 1.7% — well below the Fed’s 2% target. Like we asked last week, How Close is Close Enough?

Home insurance costs are a disaster. According to analysis from Zillow, average annual home insurance premiums have risen 38% since 2019, far outstripping the 22% rise in average annual household income over the same period. What’s happening? Two things: 1) a ~50% rise in home prices since 2019 (so higher repair/replacement costs), and 2) an increased incidence of catastrophic $1bn+ claim events (bigger underwriting losses for insurers). [Zillow]

TP: Home insurance used to be something a potential homebuyer never really thought about much. Downpayment, monthly mortgage bills, annual property tax — sure. But now both the availability and affordability of home insurance is a major concern.

Where Did All Those Jobs Go? (May 2025 Edition)

Last Friday, we got the important Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. It showed that the US added 139,000 jobs in May — a bit higher than expectations — but the data for the previous two months was revised down by 95,000 jobs!

In fact, the initial jobs data almost always gets revised down — twice! The problem is that the bond market reacts immediately to the headline figure, but generally ignores the revisions. Why? Because people are too busy looking at the new month’s data to worry about the past!

As the table below shows, the number of jobs added in 2025 year-to-date has already been revised down by a total of 192,000 (that’s an average of 48,000 per month)!

And this certainly isn’t just a 2025 thing. In 2024, the monthly job additions were revised down by a total of 211,000 (~18,000 per month). And in 2023, the monthly job additions were revised down by a total of 360,000 (30,000 per month).

It really makes you wonder: would the Fed be so comfortable with interest rates this high if they could somehow see the revised jobs numbers first?

Where is All That Inventory?

I love diving into the latest monthly numbers from Realtor.com’s Residential Listing Database. In May 2025, total active inventory (which excludes homes under contract) rose 8.0% month-over-month (pretty normal for this time of year) and 31.5% year-over-year to 1,036,101 units. That’s the first time we’ve had more than a million homes for sale since December 2019. At the national level, active inventory is now just 12% below pre-pandemic levels.

But as I’ve noted previously, the inventory situation is VERY different from state to state. Broadly speaking, the South and West have inventory levels that are near or above pre-pandemic levels, while the Northeast and Midwest have inventory levels that are still well below pre-pandemic levels.

Inventory is also concentrated in a few states. Florida and Texas alone represent 30% of the total active inventory in the country, despite only having 15% of the population. And both states’ inventory levels are ~30% above May 2019 levels. (Note: In May 2019, Florida and Texas had just 20% of the total active inventory in the country).

It’s a totally different situation for New York State and Pennsylvania, where inventory levels are still ~43% below pre-pandemic levels.

Inventory Levels for the Seven Largest States by Population

In fact, there are currently 10 states with inventory levels (May 2025) that are ABOVE pre-pandemic levels (May 2019). You’ll notice that the majority of these states are in the South or the mountain West. You may also recall that most of these states benefited heavily from pandemic-era migration trends AND saw huge home price movements.

10 States with Inventory Levels (May 2025) ABOVE Pre-Pandemic Levels (May 2019)

Colorado: +34.5%
Texas: +32.5%
Florida: +26.3%
Washington: +25.8%
Tennessee: +25.3%
Arizona: +24.3%
Idaho: +21.8%
Utah: +18.8%
Hawaii: +8.4%
Oregon: +4.1%

So are home price trends reflecting the supply situation in these states? In general, yes. There are currently 20 states where median listing prices are DOWN year-over-year, and the majority of those were also in the list above (had inventory above pre-pandemic levels).

States where Median Listing Prices are Falling YoY (May 2024 vs. May 2019)

Kansas: -7.7% YoY
Hawaii: -6.7% YoY
Iowa: -5.4% YoY
Illinois: -4.8% YoY
Minnesota: -3.6% YoY
Arizona: -3.6% YoY
Utah: -3.4% YoY
Colorado: -3.0% YoY
Massachusetts: -2.9% YoY
Florida: -2.2% YoY
Not shown: CT, TN, DE, MT, CA, OH, TX, NJ, MS, ID (all down by 2% or less)

It’s important to note a few things about the data above. First, we’re looking at median listing prices, which can easily be skewed by the “mix” of properties available. Second, you can’t look at supply in isolation; many of these states saw an influx of new residents, and that means higher demand. Third, we’re only looking at existing homes; and many of the states with inventory levels above pre-pandemic levels ALSO saw an apartment and home building boom.

OK, So Where are Home Prices Falling?

The Realtor.com data also looks at the median listing price on a monthly basis. I was curious which cities were seeing the largest declines. Remember: the listing price can be seriously skewed by the mix of properties on sale from month to month — so this is a far-from-perfect measure of appreciation or depreciation. Still, here’s what I found:

Of the Top 100 cities by household size, 61 (61%) saw year-over-year declines in their median listing prices in April 2025. (This figure was 48 last month). But most of those YoY declines were small (1–3%).
The biggest decreases among the Top 100 were: Bridgeport CT (-13% YoY), Wichita KS (-11%), Durham-Chapel Hill NC (-10%), Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA (-9%), and Urban Honolulu HI (-9% YoY).
The largest increases among the Top 100 were: Baltimore MD (+10% YoY), Augusta-Richmond GA/SC (+8% YoY), Toledo OH (+14% YoY), New Haven CT (+7% YoY), and Syracuse NY (+6%).
Taking a look at the next 100 (101–200), 63 metros (61%) saw YoY declines in their median listing price. In other words, the trends we’re seeing in the Top 100 extend much deeper.

We’ve got to be careful here, because more accurate measures of home price appreciation (Case-Shiller, FHFA etc.) are saying that home prices are still trending up in all the bigger cities except Tampa. And even Tampa is only down slightly after rising by ~70% over the previous 5 years.

Mortgage Market

Initially, the bond market took the May BLS jobs numbers pretty badly. But as economists and investors dissected the report, it became clear that this was a weaker job report than it appeared at first glance. We were also braced for a bad May CPI report, which was expected to show a reacceleration in annual inflation. Instead, both the “headline” and “core” indexes were pretty much flat (and could have gone backwards if not for Shelter costs).

Add this all together and US treasury yields and average 30-year mortgage rates were little changed. The mortgage market just can’t seem to shake 7%.

Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.

June 18 FOMC Meeting: 100% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (no rate cut). This was 99% last week.
July 30 FOMC Meeting: 83% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (up from 70% last week). 17% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (down from 29% last week). This implies one 25 bps rate cut at this meeting
September 17 FOMC Meeting: 57% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (unchanged from last week). This implies one 25 bps rate cut on either July 30 or Sept 17, but not both. 10% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both the July 30 and Sept 17 meetings).

Hickory Area Happenings!

Step 1: Getting Pre-Approved

Step 2: Finding Your Dream Home

Step 3: Making an Offer

Step 4: Home Inspection and Due Diligence

Step 5: Securing Financing

Step 6: Closing the Deal

Step 7: Moving In and Beyond

Start Your Journey with Us

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

Why Morganton, Hickory, and Newton/Conover Are Worth a Look

A Lifestyle Worth Relocating For

References (5)

2. A Market Tilt Toward Moderate Regional Growth

3. A Window of Opportunity on the Horizon

4. Premiums Persist in Top School Districts

What It Means for Buyers, Sellers & Investors

Buyer’s Brief:

Seller’s Snapshot:

Investor’s Insight:

Final Thoughts

Hickory Housing Market Snapshot — Mid-2025

What This Means for You as a Seller

Engage Thoughtfully: We Want Your Perspective!

Understanding the 2025 Fed Rate-Cut Outlook: What It Means for Real Estate

1. What’s Happening with Fed Rates?

2. How Many Rate Cuts Are Likely—and When?

3. What Markets Are Saying

4. What This Means for Real Estate

Bottom Line

Where Did All Those Jobs Go? (May 2025 Edition)

Where is All That Inventory?

OK, So Where are Home Prices Falling?

Mortgage Market

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