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The May BLS job report looked strong on the surface, but large (and consistent) downward revisions to prior months suggest that the labor market is loosening up more than the Fed lets on. Also, the May CPI report turned out much better (that is, lower) than feared.
A recap of May “jobs week”ADP: Almost no job growth in May. ADP reported that private employers added just 37,000 jobs in May — far below Wall Street expectations of around 120,000. Small companies (<50 employees) actually lost a net 13,000 jobs, and half of the industry categories tracked by ADP saw net job declines. [ADP]
BLS: Strong on the surface. In direct contrast to ADP’s data, the BLS jobs report showed that the US added a solid 139,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. But wait…the prior two months’ numbers were revised down by 95,000 jobs! And the birth/death model — which is supposed to capture small business start-ups and failures — added nearly 200,000 jobs on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. [BLS]
TP: Real (ADP) vs. imputed (BLS). It’s getting to be a bit ridiculous. The birth-death model is adding imaginary jobs every month, and the initial BLS jobs numbers are typically revised down — twice!
Home inventory levels continue to rise. The May update of Realtor.com’s Residential Listing Database showed that active inventory (which excludes homes already under contract) had risen 31.5% YoY to 1,036,101 units. The last time we had over 1 million homes for sale was December 2019 — just before the pandemic spurred a massive inventory drawdown. [Realtor.com]
TP: Back in December 2019, we had 1 million active listings and homes were selling at a 5.0–5.5 million unit annual pace. Today we’re back above 1 million active listings, but we’re selling homes at a 4.0 million unit annual pace.
Median listing prices trending lower. Let’s start with this: median listing prices aren’t the best way to look at home price appreciation. That’s because they can be skewed significantly by the changing mix of properties for sale. That said, it’s worth noting that in 60% of the Top 100 metros, median listing prices are down year-over-year. In most cities, however, these declines are modest (1–3%), especially when compared to the gains over the past 5 years. [Realtor.com]
May CPI was better (lower) than expected. Both the “headline” and “core” CPI (Consumer Price Index = inflation for you and me) rose by just 0.1% month-over-month, which meant that annual “core” inflation remained at +2.8% YoY. Wall Street expectations were for “headline” CPI to rise by 0.2% MoM and for “core” CPI to climb 0.3% MoM. Phew! [BLS]
TP: This was a surprisingly tame inflation report. Many of the larger categories (energy, new & used car prices) saw prices FALL month-over-month. If not for the 0.3% MoM (+3.9% YoY) increase in Shelter costs (which have an incredible 44% weighting in “core” CPI), the index could have gone backwards. And if you annualize the last 3 months of “core” CPI increases, you get 1.7% — well below the Fed’s 2% target. Like we asked last week, How Close is Close Enough?
Home insurance costs are a disaster. According to analysis from Zillow, average annual home insurance premiums have risen 38% since 2019, far outstripping the 22% rise in average annual household income over the same period. What’s happening? Two things: 1) a ~50% rise in home prices since 2019 (so higher repair/replacement costs), and 2) an increased incidence of catastrophic $1bn+ claim events (bigger underwriting losses for insurers). [Zillow]
TP: Home insurance used to be something a potential homebuyer never really thought about much. Downpayment, monthly mortgage bills, annual property tax — sure. But now both the availability and affordability of home insurance is a major concern.
Last Friday, we got the important Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. It showed that the US added 139,000 jobs in May — a bit higher than expectations — but the data for the previous two months was revised down by 95,000 jobs!
In fact, the initial jobs data almost always gets revised down — twice! The problem is that the bond market reacts immediately to the headline figure, but generally ignores the revisions. Why? Because people are too busy looking at the new month’s data to worry about the past!
As the table below shows, the number of jobs added in 2025 year-to-date has already been revised down by a total of 192,000 (that’s an average of 48,000 per month)!
And this certainly isn’t just a 2025 thing. In 2024, the monthly job additions were revised down by a total of 211,000 (~18,000 per month). And in 2023, the monthly job additions were revised down by a total of 360,000 (30,000 per month).
It really makes you wonder: would the Fed be so comfortable with interest rates this high if they could somehow see the revised jobs numbers first?
I love diving into the latest monthly numbers from Realtor.com’s Residential Listing Database. In May 2025, total active inventory (which excludes homes under contract) rose 8.0% month-over-month (pretty normal for this time of year) and 31.5% year-over-year to 1,036,101 units. That’s the first time we’ve had more than a million homes for sale since December 2019. At the national level, active inventory is now just 12% below pre-pandemic levels.
But as I’ve noted previously, the inventory situation is VERY different from state to state. Broadly speaking, the South and West have inventory levels that are near or above pre-pandemic levels, while the Northeast and Midwest have inventory levels that are still well below pre-pandemic levels.
Inventory is also concentrated in a few states. Florida and Texas alone represent 30% of the total active inventory in the country, despite only having 15% of the population. And both states’ inventory levels are ~30% above May 2019 levels. (Note: In May 2019, Florida and Texas had just 20% of the total active inventory in the country).
It’s a totally different situation for New York State and Pennsylvania, where inventory levels are still ~43% below pre-pandemic levels.
Inventory Levels for the Seven Largest States by Population
In fact, there are currently 10 states with inventory levels (May 2025) that are ABOVE pre-pandemic levels (May 2019). You’ll notice that the majority of these states are in the South or the mountain West. You may also recall that most of these states benefited heavily from pandemic-era migration trends AND saw huge home price movements.
10 States with Inventory Levels (May 2025) ABOVE Pre-Pandemic Levels (May 2019)
Colorado: +34.5%Texas: +32.5%Florida: +26.3%Washington: +25.8%Tennessee: +25.3%Arizona: +24.3%Idaho: +21.8%Utah: +18.8%Hawaii: +8.4%Oregon: +4.1%
So are home price trends reflecting the supply situation in these states? In general, yes. There are currently 20 states where median listing prices are DOWN year-over-year, and the majority of those were also in the list above (had inventory above pre-pandemic levels).
States where Median Listing Prices are Falling YoY (May 2024 vs. May 2019)
Kansas: -7.7% YoYHawaii: -6.7% YoYIowa: -5.4% YoYIllinois: -4.8% YoYMinnesota: -3.6% YoYArizona: -3.6% YoYUtah: -3.4% YoYColorado: -3.0% YoYMassachusetts: -2.9% YoYFlorida: -2.2% YoYNot shown: CT, TN, DE, MT, CA, OH, TX, NJ, MS, ID (all down by 2% or less)
It’s important to note a few things about the data above. First, we’re looking at median listing prices, which can easily be skewed by the “mix” of properties available. Second, you can’t look at supply in isolation; many of these states saw an influx of new residents, and that means higher demand. Third, we’re only looking at existing homes; and many of the states with inventory levels above pre-pandemic levels ALSO saw an apartment and home building boom.
The Realtor.com data also looks at the median listing price on a monthly basis. I was curious which cities were seeing the largest declines. Remember: the listing price can be seriously skewed by the mix of properties on sale from month to month — so this is a far-from-perfect measure of appreciation or depreciation. Still, here’s what I found:
We’ve got to be careful here, because more accurate measures of home price appreciation (Case-Shiller, FHFA etc.) are saying that home prices are still trending up in all the bigger cities except Tampa. And even Tampa is only down slightly after rising by ~70% over the previous 5 years.
Initially, the bond market took the May BLS jobs numbers pretty badly. But as economists and investors dissected the report, it became clear that this was a weaker job report than it appeared at first glance. We were also braced for a bad May CPI report, which was expected to show a reacceleration in annual inflation. Instead, both the “headline” and “core” indexes were pretty much flat (and could have gone backwards if not for Shelter costs).
Add this all together and US treasury yields and average 30-year mortgage rates were little changed. The mortgage market just can’t seem to shake 7%.
Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.
https://www.carolinajournal.com/nc-moves-toward-cryptocurrency-adoption-with-new-bill-for-state-investments-in-digital-assets/
North Carolina Speaker of the House Destin Hall, R-Cladwell, introduced cryptocurrency legislation on Monday that would enable the state to invest in digital assets like Bitcoin, potentially making North Carolina a leader in aligning with the latest finance technology.
The NC Digital Assets Investments Act would diversify the state’s investments by allowing the state treasurer to include digital assets in the state’s investment portfolio. Reps. Stephen Ross, R-Alamance, Mark Brody, R-Union, and Mike Schietzelt, R-Wake, signed on as sponsors to HB92 .
“We are seeing a rapid shift towards embracing blockchain technology and digital assets across the United States,” said Hall. “Investing in digital assets like Bitcoin not only has the potential to generate positive yields for our state investment fund but also positions North Carolina as a leader in technological adoption & innovation. I am proud to sponsor this bill, and I thank my colleagues Representatives Ross and Brody for their work in previous sessions to set the stage for this bill now in 2025.”
According to a press release, key provisions of the bill include:
Notably, at just under $2 trillion in total market capitalization, Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that meets the requirements spelled out in the bill. The next largest crypto-asset, Ethereum, clocks in at approximately $317 billion.
Legislators pointed to a variety of reasons to invest in digital assets, such as the U.S. dollar facing periods of inflation and devaluation, as well as enhance the potential returns of our portfolio.
“Blockchain technology, decentralized finance, and other innovations in the crypto space will shape our future in many new ways. North Carolina is poised to capitalize on these emerging opportunities,” said Schietzelt.
Dan Spuller, Head of Industry Affairs at the Washington-based Blockchain Association and co-chair of the North Carolina Blockchain Initiative task force applauded House leaders for pushing the bill forward, noting previous legislation that aligned with the latest effort.
“North Carolina has led on digital asset policy, from the updated Money Transmitters Act of 2016 to the bipartisan Regulatory Sandbox Act of 2021 and last year’s HB 690, which prohibited Central Bank Digital Currencies,” said Spuller. “Passing HB 92 will further cement the state’s leadership in financial and technological innovation.”
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The 3-month (partial) reprieve on tariffs between US and China sparked joy for the stock market, but saw the bond market sell off.
All this crazy volatility reminds me how nice it is to own a home: no daily investment stress & powerful long-term wealth creation.
Hope you enjoy my update on national and local real estate!
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If you have a 3% mortgage rate, you’re probably pretty hesitant to let that go. And even if you’ve toyed with the idea of moving, this nagging thought may be holding you back: “why would I give that up?”
But when you ask that question, you may be putting your needs on the back burner without realizing it. Most people don’t move because of their mortgage rate. They move because they want or need to. So, let’s flip the script and ask this instead:
What are the chances you’ll still be in your current house 5 years from now?
Think about your life for a moment. Picture what the next few years will hold. Are you planning on growing your family? Do you have adult children about to move out? Is retirement on the horizon? Are you already bursting at the seams?
If nothing’s going to change, and you love where you are, staying put might make perfect sense. But if there’s even a slight chance a move is coming, even if it’s not immediate, it’s worth thinking about your timeline.
Because even a year or two can make a big difference in what your next home might cost you.
Each quarter, Fannie Mae asks more than 100 housing market experts to weigh in on where they project home prices are headed. And the consensus is clear. Home prices are expected to rise through at least 2029 (see graph below):
While those projections aren’t calling for big increases each year, it's still an increase. And sure, some markets may see flatter prices or slower growth, or even slight dips in the short term. But look further out. In the long run, prices almost always rise. And over the next 5 years, the anticipated increase – however slight – will add up fast.
Here’s an example. Let's say you'll be looking to buy a roughly $400,000 house when you move. If you wait and move 5 years from now, based on these expert projections, it could cost nearly $80,000 more than it would now (see graph below):
That means the longer you wait, the more your future home will cost you.
If you know a move is likely in your future, it may make sense to really think about your timeline. You certainly don't have to move now. But financially, it may still be worth having a conversation about your options before prices inch higher. Because while rates are expected to come down, it’s not by much. And if you’re holding out in hopes we’ll see the return of 3% rates, experts agree it’s just not in the cards (see graph below):
So, the question really isn’t: “why would I move?” It’s: “when should I?” – because when you see the real numbers, waiting may not be the savings strategy you thought it was. And that’s the best conversation you can have with your trusted agent right now.
Keeping that low mortgage rate is smart – until it starts holding you back.
If a move is likely on the horizon for you, even if it’s a few years down the line, it’s worth thinking through the numbers now, so you can plan ahead.
What other price point do you want to see these numbers for? Let’s have that conversation, so I can show you how the math adds up. That way, you can make an informed decision about your timeline.
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
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